Line-up Run Down

#1 Corey Patterson - Not the popular place people want to see him, but I am not as upset as most people. I hate the freaking strikeouts and I am a bigger stickler for OBP at the top of the order, but I do like the other aspects that Patterson's skills bring to the lineup. Even if he get's on at a .320 clip Patterson will score 100+ runs easy.

I hated Grudz leading off, the man was slower than a brick and was a double play in waiting on the base paths. Forget about hitting and running, if the batter struck out (which was a very good chance) Grudz would of been gunned down easily at 2nd for a double play. Patterson brings the ability to turn a single into a double each time he gets on base. Plus it annoys the hell out of the pitchers worried about him stealing bases. Pitchers will often move to the fastball to give their catcher a chance at throwing out runners. And if the Cubs are hitting and running, Patterson would be scoring from first where as before Grudz or Walker would be held up at 3rd base. This is a much better use of his skills with RBI men behind him than buring him at the bottom of the order.

#2 Todd Walker - I guess I will probably be getting my wish if Walker bat's #2. The top 2 in the order I wanted last year was Walker and Patterson to take advantage of their lefty bat because of our right handed dominated lineup. I still don't have a problem with Walker leading off but I think he is better suited to the #2 hole and being the contact/hit and run hitter to protect Patterson. Plus he has some extra base/gap power that a Cubs team has lacked in the #2 slot for awhile now. Please god, no more Rey Ordonez's, Jose Macias, or Lenny Harris type hitters in the #2 slot ever again.

#3 Nomar Garciaparra - The Cubs offense will either be good or bad depending on Nomar's health. I am in the camp that Nomar hits .300/25-30 Hr's/110+ RBI. Again, another contact hitter who has the ability to protect runners on a hit and run and can get key singles when needed.

#4 Aramis Ramirez - If his SO/BB ratio holds he will form the final piece in 3 straight Cubs hitters who are contact oriented hitters not SO prone hitters.

#5 Sammy Sosa - If Sosa can remain healthy for a full season you will see the dominate Sosa for a full season. Many people forget that before his injuries the last 2 season's he was having banner years. Then missed a month and completly lost any momentum he had. You might not see the average but if Sosa plays around 162 games he will hit around .270/40-45 HR's/100+ RBI.

#6 Derrek Lee - The supposed major upgrade at 1b. His defense is unmatched. But his offense? Mark Grace was much better than him. Hitting 30 HR's doesn't mean your better when your other numbers are .278 BA, 98 RBI, 128 SO's. Grace got punked alot because he didn't hit HR's but he matched Lee's RBI and hit .300+ with about half the SO's with a .400 OBP.

Lee would have much better overall numbers if he didn't mail in his first two months of every season. If he decides to get hot from game #1 on he could be a force, but expect more of the same which isn't too shabby for a #6 hitter.

#7 Michael Barrett - If he can keep up what he did last year and produce a .280ish BA with 65 RBI from this slot again the Cubs will be looking good for the bottom part of the order.

#8 Todd Hollandsworth - Might as well pencil him in as the every day left fielder next year. Dusty has said so. And even if Dubois hits .400 in spring training Dusty will do everything in his power to completly screw up the kids timing so he will have his "opportunity to fail." Holly is a bum, has has been for much of his career. I am not fooled by his heroics last season. If your expecting it again, get prepared for a major let down. This would be the ideal spot to work in a prospect with no pressure, but I guess I wont be too pissed with Holly hitting .250 in the #8 spot, I watched A-gonz hit .230 in the #7 spot most of the time. So Holly is an upgrade in that regard for the lower part of the order.

Overall - Overall I think the Cubs have a good shot at having a productive lineup. Lot's of if's and praying they don't get injured but it is a lineup that can cause trouble for other teams.

Realistically my only sure bets in this lineup are Am-ram, Walker, and Lee. Those are the players I have a good sense of what to expect out of them. I don't expect them to be worse next season.

Question marks are Patterson, Sosa, Nomar, Barrett, Holly. These players can range from either really good to god-awful or injured too much to contribute. You really can't peg down what the expect out of them until they actually start playing and putting up the numbers.

I give Hendry alot of crap for a lousy off-season but I can see, where he might see, that the Cubs have a pretty good lineup right now. Best case scenerio we have a good lineup. Though adding a Drew or Beltran would of added extra insurance to a lineup that is filled mostly with question marks.

I am still going to hang in the Corey camp. He gets bashed alot for not being Miguel Cabrera or Albert Pujols from day one. Cubs fans are ready to stick a fork in him. I am not saying Patterson will be a super-star one day, but hey some players require time to develop, give it time. The up's and down of Patterson I can live with, for now.

And some interesting math - Patterson months hitting from best to worst .336, .327, .277, .250, .225, .198

Lee's - .385, .280, .275, .270, .233, .226.

Throw out Patterson and Lee's best and worst months as aberrations and you get 386 AB's by each Lee and Patterson in all the other months. Lee got 103 hits and Patterson 104 hits for a .269 average and .267 average for Lee.

For Lee and Patterson it is also damn close to their career averages. Patterson is young and still in development. What the hell is Derrek Lee's excuse for being no better than Patterson in 4 out of the 6 months? If your going to blast Corey Patterson make sure you blast Derrek Lee in the same sentence.

This example is good for judging streak/bunch hitters. What are they doing in the months when they aren't on fire or in a major slump.

Oh, and for those complaining about Patterson's .198 to finish the season. Miguel Cabrera hit .229 with a .315 OBP in the last month. That was down considerably from his .300ish BA, .370ish OBP average in previous months. Jason Bay in the final month dipped also but he had less playing time over all, Aaron Rowand of the White Sox struggled in the last month also, his OBP went way down. It is a long season and most young players have a hard time finishing out the season because they have never played a 162 game schedule. Patterson was hitting .285 with a .360 OBP before that last month. I see no reason why Patterson can not put up those kind of averages again next season if he avoids the drop off at the end. These things are only taken care of by playing through it and building up your endurance. You can't learn how to adjust to playing a full-season in the majors by sitting on the bench.

Would anyone be upset if Patterson posted those kind of numbers next season for the whole year? Don't be surprised if he does.