The Unfinished Post

Well i have been kinda working on this over the last couple of days. I am not an accomplished writer and at times have trouble trying to explain my point or idea. Its in my little head, but for some reason its just really hard to transfer it from thought to paper or errrrrrr blog. I hope to fix some parts and expand upon them at a later date, or just totally scrap it as stupid, but for now this is what i got.........

There are 2 statistics that can help you evaluate the performace of a player if he is helping your team or hurting it. Sometimes looking at BA alone will not help.

I tend to look at OUTs divided by plate appearances. And EQA.

The OUT is decided as followed - known outs made by the player, defined by AB-H+CS+SH+SF.

EQA is defined as followed - Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. The EqA adjusted for all-time also has a correction for league difficulty. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. Average is .260.

Outs made by the player are very important. It means he is doing nothing to help his team. He isnt reaching base by either hit or walk. And if you make alot of them you start to hurt your team. Couple this with the EQA measuring your offensive performance and you tend to see who is more productive and who is the hollow or unproductive player.

This is my theory atleast, if you are making outs at a 62% rate and below you are in the upper echelon of star players in baseball. Guys like Manny Ramirez have a 57% out rate, Pujols 55% and Barry Bonds a god like 47% out rate. If you are in the 63% to 67% out rate you are generally an average player or a couple steps below all-star level. Productive major leaguers generally. Once you get into 68% out rate and beyond you start to hurt your team. And generally these are the poor major leaguers or below average ball players.

EQA as you noticed above, .260 is average, .280 is above average, .300 is all-star, .330 is MVP. Currently in the National League there are 5 players with an Eqa over .330. Barry Bonds .422, Pujols .364, Sheffield .344, Helton .341 and Edmonds .330. As you can see Bonds and Pujols are clearly way ahead of the pack and its no wonder its a two way race for the MVP.

Now what i did when i looked at the Cubs was take their 13 most often used players. Generally guys over 100 AB's. And this is what i came up with.

Out % from best to worst....

Sosa 62%
Alou 64%
Karros 64%
Grudz 64%
Choi 64%
Martinez 65%
Bellhorn 66%
Miller 68%
Patterson 68%
Goodwin 70%
Gonzalez 71%
O'Leary 72%
Harris 74%

As you notice we only have 1 player in the 62% out rate and below and thats Sosa just barely making it. 7 players are in the 63%-67% range of average players. And another 6 players in the 68%+ range of poor players. My feeling is you cant field a productive offense when you have just as many poor performing players as you do average players. They are just too close together in talent level.

But interestingly most teams have 6-7 players on their team in the 68%+ category of outs. They are generally bench players, and spot starters. The Cardinals for example have 5 players in such category but its offset by having 5 players at 62% and below and only 3 players in the 63% to 67% range. The good thing with the Cardinals is those 5 players with a 62% out rate and below are all starters. Which means 55% of their everyday lineup is extremly helpfull to the team. Where as with the Cubs and Sosa he only makes up 11% of our everyday lineup that is helpfull in this way.

The problem lies not in the poor players but in the players that are just average to good. Every team has its lousy players who make tons of outs and cant get the job done. But when you tend to field a lineup that is mostly average to poor players you get a horrible offense. This is not news or a great big discovery on my part. But the stats help back it up.

Where EQA comes in is to show how productive that major league player is regardless of what his out rate is. It tends to seperate the pretenders from the real thing.

The Cubs Eqa from best to worst is as followed....

Sosa .313
Alou .283
Patterson .283
Karros .280
Choi .273
Grudz .268
Goodwin .258
Martinez .257
Miller .245
Bellhorn .243
Gonzalez .235
O'Leary .217
Harris .166

Again Sosa is our only player in the all-star level of production. There are a few interesting things to note from this. Karros and Choi's Eqa's are very close together. They both have a 64% out rate. So this myth Choi was hurting the team is actually wrong. He may have been hitting .230, but he was just as productive as Karros as shown by Eqa and he was making outs at the same rate of Karros.

Grudz is another interesting point. He has a respectable 64% out rate, but his Eqa is barely over average. This is what i term a pretender. His overall stats look good but when you break it down, he is barely average. Remember the stats he was putting up before he was injured are career highs. And if career highs are gonna just make you an average baseball player, then what does an average Mark Grudz look like? A look at his career stats will give you an idea. And its not very good.

Another no big surprise is Ramon Martinez as our best bench player as he posted a 65% out rate and a .257 EQA. Which is awesome for the role that he plays. And its nearly as good as Grudz. The problem? Grudz makes $6 million. Martinez under $1 million. This is where the best bang for your buck comes in. Are you gonna dish out $3-6 million to resign Grudz or go with the just as good but lesser known option who makes less than $1 million. That is unless ofcourse your not gonna purse a FA for that position.

When you put Eqa and OUT % together and start evaluation of talent you tend to see who are your keepers and who you just need to throw away. Patterson for example has an ugly 68% out rate but he is a highly productive player with a .283 EQA. He was just as productive as Alou who had a 64% out rate.

The way i see it Grudz, O'leary, Karros, Miller, and A-gonz need to say good bye. Throw out the trash. Martinez, Goodwin, Choi are keepers. Martinez because he is just as good as Grudz and cheaper. Choi because he is just as good as Karros and cheaper. Goodwin because although he has a 70% out rate his EQA is .258 which means he is still productive to the team.

Now i havent included Lofton and Ramirez as i believe they have had too short amount of time on the team but at present Lofton has a 64% out rate and a .293 EQA which is better than Patterson in both areas. Ramirez has a 69% out rate and a .266 EQA. Not exactly stellar but far and way better than what we put out there before. While both have helped the Cubs alot other players during their stint have tailed off. Thus negating their improvements. Sosa is sorta in a slump, Alou is, Karros isnt hitting, Grudz got injured, Goodwin got injured, Martinez was injured and still is kinda. And well A-gonz hasnt hit over .230 for about 3 months straight.