Best 3-4-5 hitters in History?

The Cub Reporter has an interesting post in response to ESPN writer Jim Baker on, "Can you suggest a 3-4-5 combo in baseball history that has the potency of Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi and Gary Sheffield?"

The Cub Reporter uses MLVr statistical analysis to say yes I can. I can say right off the bat I don't know what MLVr is.

He points to the 2001 Seasons of both the Cubs and the Giants and picks out Bonds, Kent, Snow, and Sosa, White, McrGriff as having more potency than anything projected from the current Yankees 3-4-5 hitters.

I am a baseball purist. I like to stick to the basic stats, Runs, HR, RBI, BA, OBP. You don't need to combine them into complex formulas to get your point across. On top of that I don't like projections based against actual stats. Projections are just that, projections. They are wrong more than they are correct. The problem with comparing A-rod, Sheff, and Giambi is that 2 of the 3 played for different teams, so we have no idea how they will react to each other.

If each player maintains his .400ish OBP they will provide each other will plenty of RBI chances. The speed of Sheff and A-rod will keep them scoring 120 runs a year on top of that. I see no reason they cant continue to keep putting up the numbers they have.

So lets start off with last years numbers of Sheffield, Giambi, and A-rod.

Sheffield - .330 BA, 39 HR, 132 RBI, 126 Runs, .419 OBP
Giambi - .250 BA, 41 HR, 107 RBI, 97 Runs, .412 OBP
A-rod - .298 BA, 47 HR, 118 RBI, 124 Runs, .396 OBP

Totals from core categories - 127 HR, 357 RBI, 347 Runs

Now the 2001 Giants.

Bonds - .328 BA, 73 HR, 137 RBI, 129 Runs, .515 OBP
Kent - .298 BA, 22 HR, 106 RBI, 84 Runs, .369 OBP
Snow - .246 BA, 8 HR, 34 RBI, 43 Runs, .371 OBP

Totals from core categories - 103 HR, 277 RBI, 256 Runs

Not even close in that comparison, except for the HR's. The discussion is over the 3-4-5 hitters and the 2001 Giants suffer in that respect because J.T. Snow, Armando Rios, and Calvin Murrary each had AB's in the #5 spot. You might say what about Rich Aurilia? He spent that year in the #2 spot in the order. If his stats were included it would make it much more respectable.

Aurilia - .324, 37 HR, 97 RBI, 114 Runs, .369 OBP

Revised core categories - 132 HR's, 340 RBI, 327 Runs.

Again were trying to stick to the 3-4-5 hitters not the most productive/potent 3 hitters in a row.

The 2001 Cubs stack up like so.

Sosa - .328 BA, 64 HR, 160 RBI, 146 Runs, .437 OBP
White - .307 BA, 17 HR, 50 RBI, 43 Runs, .377 OBP
McGriff - .306 BA, 31 HR, 102 RBI, 67 Runs, .386 OBP

Totals from core categories - 112 HR, 312 RBI, 256 Runs

I included McGriffs entire season totals because he didn't skip a beat when he was trade to the Cubs, what hurts in this comparisonn is that White was injured and McGriff was slow as a brick on the base paths.

Runs wise the 2001 Cubs were horrid when compared to the other 3-4-5 hitters. That is due mostly to horrible hitters in the lower half of the order. This is a problem the 2004 New York Yankees will not have. Sheff, Giambi and A-rod should continue to cross the plate at or around 120 times a year.

The question is again, "Can you suggest a 3-4-5 combo in baseball history that has the potency of Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi and Gary Sheffield?"

In recent history? No I cant. But in distant history i can suggest the 1927 Yankees 3-4-5. Now I am not a baseball expert and don't know where to begin looking for where these guys hit exactly in the order so I could be completely wrong. If anyone knows a site that tells exactly where hitters of the past hit in the order by year that would be wonderful.

I just went over to Baseball-Reference.com and started scrolling through Yankees teams and Ruth, Gehrig, and Lazzeri come out as followed.

Gehrig - .373 BA, 47 HR, 175 RBI, 149 Runs, 474 OBP
Ruth - .356 BA, 60 HR, 164 RBI, 158 Runs, .486 OBP
Lazzeri - .309 BA, 18 HR, 102 RBI, 92 Runs, .383 OBP

Totals from core categories - 125 HR, 441 RBI, 399 Runs

Power wise the 2004 Yankees are nearly identical to the 1927 Yankees. However in RBI, Runs, BA, and OBP the 1927 Yankees dwarf what a possible 2004 Yankees team could put up. Thats a potent collection of 3 hitters the Yankees put out in 1927.

Another fun one from the past to put up is the 1930 Chicago Cubs hitters of Hack Wilson, Kiki Cuyler, and Gabby Hartnett.

Wilson - .356 BA, 56 HR, 191 RBI, 146 Runs, .454 OBP
Cuyler - .355 BA, 13 HR, 134 RBI, 155 Runs, .428 OBP
Hartnett - .339 BA, 37 HR, 122 RBI, 84 Runs, .404 OBP

Totals from core categories - 108 HR, 447 RBI, 385 Runs

Close to the 1927 Yankees collection but not quite good enough. A very worthy 2nd best in my opinion.

Again I could be way off on the 1927 Yankees and 1930 Chicago Cubs, someone who knows that Hartnett batted #2 could make this all moot.

I believe the author was going more for the question, "Can you find a better group of 3 great hitters together," as compared to specifically the 3-4-5 hitters even though he said 3-4-5 hitters. If that makes any sense at all.

I have a hard time excluding Rich Aurilla from 2001 and putting in J.T. Snow just because one batted #2 and one batted #5. The fact was Aurilla, Bonds and Kent formed a very effective 3 hitters to go through that year.

Ofcourse I will probably get slammed because I used last years numbers of Sheffield and A-rod from their former teams. Most tend to agree that their numbers should probably fall off, atleast RBI wise, making them not as productive. But even if they maintain their career averages it makes it a very potent lineup.

Career Averages

Sheffield - .299, 33 HR, 106 RBI, 103 Runs, .401 OBP
Giambi - .302, 35 HR, 116 RBI, 105 Runs, .415 OBP
A-rod - .307, 44 HR, 126 RBI, 128 Runs, .382 OBP

Totals from core categories - 112 HR, 348 RBI, 336 Runs

Just an average season by these 3 puts away the 2001 Cubs and Giants comparisions. I don't think one expert doesn't expect them to atleast match their career averages this coming year.

And who knows we might see a 2001 Bonds/Sosa or Ruthian display from one of these Yankees hitters. I don't think we have seen an off the chart year by any of these guys yet. Giambi might be in decline, Sheffield is 35 and the chances are slim for a monster year. A-Rod could thrive in New York. One monster year by any of these guys and we start putting them up with the 1927 Yankees and 1930 Chicago Cubs. Until then they are just a crude camparision to the some of the great teams of the past.

This is the way I compare production/potency. If you are knocking in more RBI, and scoreing more Runs your the most productive/potent. And I believe thats what Jim Baker was looking for in the question he asked.

I don't want to knock MLVr, but...

MLVr is a rate-based version of Marginal Lineup Value (MLV), a measure of offensive production created by David Tate and further developed by Keith Woolner. MLV is an estimate of the additional number of runs a given player will contribute to a lineup that otherwise consists of average offensive performers. MLVr is approximately equal to MLV per game. The league average MLVr is zero (0.000).

By its own admission its an estimate. And frankly when you start estimating how many runs one player contributes over another you start getting into murky waters. Just because Alex Rodriguez joined the Yankees doesnt mean he is less important. Just because the offensive load is carried by the rest of the lineup, doesn't mean A-rod is less valuable over Bonds or Sosa who hit in less productive lineups.

Again the question is,"Can you suggest a 3-4-5 combo in baseball history that has the potency of Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi and Gary Sheffield?"

Not who has the best Marginal Lineup Value. And I will stick with the 1927 Yankees of Ruth, Gehrig, and Lazzeri for now.

Update: I think The Cub Reporter probably also forgot about the 1998 Cardinals and the combo of Mark McGwire, Ray Lankford, and Brian Jordan. I am sure the MLVr example would probably be better than the 2001 Cubs one.

Anyways their stats are as folllowed.

McGwire - .299 BA, 70 HR, 147 RBI, 130 Runs, .470 OBP
Lankford - .293 BA, 31 HR, 105 RBI, 94 Runs, .391 OBP
Jordan - .316 BA, 25 HR, 91 RBI, 100 Runs, .368 OBP

Total from core categories - 126 HR, 343 RBI, 314 Runs

The 1998 Cardinals 3 combo hitters compare very closely to what the 2004 Yankees should do. They were also a much better heart of the order than the 2001 Giants and Cubs.