Sunday, July 25, 2004

Over at The Cub Reporter a reader offers his suggestion for the lineup of the Cubs. One hitting spot I have to quickly disagree on.


2. SS - Alex Gonzalez

And here's counter-intuitive manuever number one. Last year during the first month of the season, Gonzo batted #2 behind Grudz and hit 295/368/390. Now those aren't A-Rod or Barry Larkin numbers but they certainly do not suck relative to what the Cubs have put out at shortstop in the past 3 months. I attribute his improvement batting second to the fact that pitchers are less likely to pitch around him with the meat of the order due up, and so they throw to his strength -fast balls in the strike zone- whereas when he bats seventh or eighth, he sees a steady diet of sinkers, sliders, and curves 6 inches outside or worse and he expands his strike zone. Let's put Gonzo where he can succeed and by extension the club will succeed, too.


How quickly they forget. I don't know how many times I have to go over this but Alex Gonzalez is a April hitter. An April hitter only hits in April because pitchers are using their fast ball more to establish their timing. After April pitchers are more accustomed to throwing their breaking stuff and dont rely on the fast ball as much.

This is further proved by Gonzalez's 3 year splits by month.
  • April - .276
  • May - .210
  • June - .250
  • July - .223
  • August - .239
  • September - .253

However the author suggests that A-gonz naturally bats better in the #2 slot because they are less likely to pitch around him. That is silly. No one pitches around a .230-.240 career hitter. Again the author quickly forgets that A-gonz has hit an anemic .255 in the #2 slot in 888 AB's over the last 3 years. The author also quickly forgets that last year A-gonz hit .256 total for the year in the #2 slot in 312 AB's. 

The reason Alex Gonzalez gets no respect is because of what I have addressed. I don't want a .250 hitter with a .302 OBP batting in my Cubs #2 slot. It didn't work in 888 previous AB's and it will not work in 888 more AB's. You don't try and get your worst hitters the most amount of AB's in a season or game. That is why lineup's are created generally from best to worst.

The other gripe about the article is Derrek Lee batting #8. But you already know what is wrong with that. Go read this fans suggestions about a lineup and make your comments.